• Bitcoin’s 200-week SMA, historically a key bull market indicator, remains below past cycle peaks, suggesting potential room for further gains.
  • Options market trends indicate bullish sentiment, with significant open interest in call options at higher strike prices, including $120,000.

Historical price trends suggest that Bitcoin may still have room for growth, even as renewed inflation concerns in the U.S. pose challenges to its current uptrend.

The 200-week simple moving average (SMA), which smooths out short-term price fluctuations to provide a clearer view of long-term trends, stood at $44,200 at the time of writing, according to TradingView. While this figure marks an all-time high for the indicator, it remains significantly below Bitcoin’s peak price of $69,000 from the previous bull market in November 2021.

Market patterns from past cycles indicate that Bitcoin bull markets have historically ended when the 200-week SMA reaches the record highs set in the preceding cycle. In 2021, for instance, the 200-week SMA climbed to $19,000, aligning with the peak of the 2017 bull market. Similarly, in December 2017, the SMA reached the prior cycle’s high of over $1,200 before the market cooled.

If this pattern holds, Bitcoin’s current range of $90,000 to $110,000 could lead to further gains. The options market appears to support this outlook, with data from Amberdata showing that call options (bets on price increases) are more expensive than put options (bets on price declines), suggesting a bullish market sentiment.

Additionally, most open interest in Bitcoin options on Deribit is concentrated in call options with strike prices above Bitcoin’s current market value of $96,700. The $120,000 call option has emerged as the most popular, with over $1.8 billion in notional open interest. Open interest refers to the number of active or outstanding contracts in the market at a given time.

While historical trends and market positioning suggest further potential upside, external factors such as inflation and macroeconomic conditions remain key variables that could influence Bitcoin’s trajectory.

Edited by Harshajit Sarmah